Why does the sequence of Nigeria’s 2019 election timetable matter?

The story

Written for Septemberpost.com

The National Assembly reordered the sequence of the 2019 general election, which is different from the INEC’s (The Independent National Electoral Commission), proposed sequence. INEC recently released the dates for general elections next year as follows: February 16, 2019 for Presidential and National Assembly elections and Saturday, March 2, 2019 for the Gubernatorial elections

 

The complication

Majority of  the National Assembly would prefer for the presidential election to come last, and for the national assembly elections to be held on a separate day.

 

Why they want this? Their reason is this, ‘band wagon effect’. Some senators believe that starting  the electoral process with the presidential elections make the other elections predictable.

It is not unusual for Nigerians to gravitate towards electing “the winning” party across all arms of government and this cannot be termed free and fair.

The National Assembly has thus voted to change the sequence, National assembly elections are to be held first, followed by the Governorship and State House of representatives’ elections and finally, the Presidential election.

 

INEC and some members of the National Assembly are  not in support of the change in the voting sequence. They have expressed worry over the extra costs of adopting the new election sequence, given the nation’s lean budget. But the national assembly is standing its ground, arguing that the extra cost for a free and fair election is a good investment.

 

INEC had already planned for the upcoming elections based on the previous voting sequence. INEC’s strategic plans even covered elections beyond the year 2019.

Assuming Nigeria adopts the new election sequence proposed by the senate, INEC will have to develop a new plan.

 

Some context and history

In 1983, the ruling party, The National People’s party changed the voting sequence, so that the presidential election would come first.

You see, in 1979, the party won the election by a slim margin, and  had to form a coalition in the National Assembly. Well they learned, and changed the rules of the game.

It can be argued that this new sequence gave the ruling party a landslide victory in 1983.

Again in 1992, the sequence was changed, the National assembly elections were held first, while the presidential elections came last in 1993. That presidential elections continues to be referred to as  one of the freest and fairest in Nigeria’s history. Again, the ruling party could not win the two-third seats required by the constitution needed to rule both houses.

 

So what

With an election sequence where the Presidential election comes last, you are more likely to get leaders voted in for reasons other than party affiliation. You are also less likely to have an assembly that passes or refuses to pass laws based on party interest than national interest.

 

September thinks…

We prefer a voting sequence that allows for the freest and fairest elections and history shows that this sequence is the one where the presidential election comes last.